In the case of slow economic growth at home and abroad, the domestic steel market continues to slump run steel mills for iron ore procurement increasingly cautious decline further, making the demand for iron ore demand remains sluggish repression, August iron ore stone market is still vulnerable to run, whether imported ore domestic ore prices showed a downward trend accelerated. Especially imported ore prices fell significantly deepened its decline was less marked than domestic ore.
Iron ore prices continue to accelerate test a low
In August, the iron ore prices accelerated test a low, part of the mainstream varieties price has fallen to the lowest point since the second half of 2009. "My steel net" The latest statistics show that as of August 31, iron ore Composite Index was 123.2 yuan / ton, down 10.14% compared with the previous month, compared with the same period last year fell sharply to 37.74% decline in the previous month significantly increased. Mysteel composite index of imported ore at 99.7 yuan / ton, a decrease of 19.66% compared with the previous month, a significant decrease of 44.3% compared with the same period last year; the Mysteel domestic ore composite index of 134.1 yuan / ton, and last month compared to a decrease of 6.29%, a significant decrease of 34.39% compared with the same period last year.
Imported iron ore market all the way to plumb: the downturn in the steel market dragged down imported ore price continues to fall and the decline and fall speed showed enlarged trend in August, and so far the market is still no significant signs stabilized.
External disk market, mining tender in August continued to increase, and mining tender and transaction prices are constantly new lows. The futures market offer only a handful of lower steel mills will of the disk access, the futures market prices continued to accelerate to plumb mainstream varieties prices have fallen below $ 100 / t mark, the prices of individual species and even dropped to 90 U.S. dollars / ton. According to the Mysteel "monitoring data show that as of August 31, PB powder Index offer of 90 U.S. dollars / ton, down $ 28 / t compared to the end of July; 63% bar crude index quotes 89 U.S. dollars / ton, compared with the end of July, down 29.5 U.S. dollars / ton; 63.5/63% Indian fines Index price of 98 U.S. dollars / ton, down 26.5 U.S. dollars / ton, compared to the end of July.
The spot market, with the the outer disk mines tender prices remained low, the spot market businesses pessimism exacerbate turnover is more difficult, the pressure part of the funds businesses have low Paohuo to abruptly that the spot market price of imported ore port. The Mysteel monitoring data show that as of August 31, the Qingdao Port, 63.5% grade Indian iron ore fines price of 720-730 yuan / ton, 61.5% grade Australian iron ore fines price of 625-635 yuan / ton, 64 % grade Brazilian iron ore price of 660-670 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton, respectively, as compared to July 31, 210 yuan / ton and 205 yuan / ton.
Enlarge domestic iron concentrate local decline, but the decline is still less than the imported ore: August imports of iron ore fell rapidly increased pressure makes the domestic iron ore market, the overall market decline does not change, the local market fell significantly enlarged. Ben monitoring data show that as of August 31, the domestic iron ore prices in the mainstream market continued to fall compared with the July 31, a drop of 25-105 yuan / ton, down widened compared to last January, but still small on imported ore declines. Among them, the the Shandong region 65% iron concentrate prices quoted 985 yuan / ton, down 105 yuan / ton in the end of last month, the decline was less marked increase. And Hebei region earlier this month by the rainy weather affect iron concentrate resources shortage, emergency steel inventories, a slight increase in the purchase price, so this month's pre-of Tangshan iron powder prices appear slightly pull up, but has a limited impact on the market as a whole, its price still continues decline, but the decline has slowed.
With the continuing decline of the steel market, the purchase price of the steel mills on iron powder continued to suppress local area steel mills frequently cut the purchase price of iron powder, the individual steel mills iron powder within one month of the purchase price reduction of $ 145 / tons, and some steel mills explicitly announced that will stop purchases of domestic iron concentrate, and promote these to some extent the decline in the price of iron powder.
However, steel mills, and again and again to keep the prices down mines and businesses find it difficult to accept current price, their shipments will decline more obvious, some choose closure library Sale. And the current market price of the domestic ore have arrived mine mining costs less, many domestic mine production declining profitability have selected discontinued According to statistics, currently 50 mines operating rate has dropped from 90% to about 62%. While by domestic mine shutdowns and steel mills overhaul, iron ore supply and demand in the short term will be somewhat improved, there will be some support late domestic ore price movements.
Inside and outside the mine to gradually increase the price difference: With the sharp decline in prices of imported ore, imported ore and domestic ore price difference has been gradually expanded. According to the monitoring data show that, as of August 31, Tangshan iron concentrate of 66% of the tax base is not included quotes 790-800 yuan / ton, Tianjin Port 63.5% Indian iron ore fines price of 750-760 yuan / ton, 61.5% of PB powder offer 700-710 yuan / ton, 63% bar crude quotes 705-715 yuan / ton.
It can be seen that the current the domestic mining low-cost advantage has been gradually disappear, and the cost advantage of imported ore is increasingly prominent. The leading steel mills have increased the ratio of foreign ore procurement enthusiasm of domestic iron concentrate is dropping lower and lower. The research shows that the ratio of imported ore has gradually increased to about 90%, by the end of last month, 84% of individual steel mills outside the mine has reached 98% ratio.
However, due to the lower production costs of foreign iron ore miner, even if the price drops, but the profit margins of the mining enterprises is still large. Domestic mine production costs are higher, with the imported ore prices continued to slump, its profitability declined, some high-cost mines living space will become very small, facing the risk of being squeezed out of the market.
Spread panic mentality, the transaction is still in the doldrums: With iron ore prices continue to accelerate test a low market businesses panic mentality spread, most merchants said the iron ore market is not optimistic about the trend of late, are more cautious procurement, resulting in the iron ore market as a whole The transaction is still in the doldrums.
Ore price fell from the downturn in steel prices
Ore price fall which are rooted in the industry view, the steel price slump dragged down. August domestic steel prices continued to decline, has hit the lowest level in nearly three years, steel prices continue down Forced iron ore prices fell again and again. According to the monitoring data show that, as of August 31, the steel mesh steel composite index was 128.3 yuan / ton, down 6.05% compared with the previous month, fell sharply by 27.54% compared to the same period last year, the decline in the previous month deepened . According to a steel trader said, "At present, some varieties of steel even under cost transactions."
It is reported that, due to the slowdown in U.S. economic growth, the European debt crisis is still no sign of abating, China's export growth remained low. In July, China's exports grew by only 1%, the lowest since February of this year. The same time, from the the July domestic economic data continued to show a slow decline in the current economic situation, the second quarter of domestic GDP growth of 7.6%, the lowest level in nearly three years since. Major steel industry growth continued to fall, the real estate regulation does not relax no significant improvement continue to drag on investment in fixed assets, large-scale investment in infrastructure such as railways, highways, above-scale industrial added value continued to drop, automobiles, home appliances, machinery industry growth rate is still low wandering. Under the influence of the above factors, the market demand for steel continued to light market turnover in the doldrums to promote steel prices continue to decline, and thus hurt the iron ore businesses have cut iron ore quotations.
Oversupply is the main cause of
According to market analysts said the main reason for the decline of the price of iron ore is still oversupply. Current domestic port stocks continued to climb, the total inventory is still hovering at a high level. According to the statistics show that as of August 31, 2012, the 30 major ports in the country's total iron ore stockpiles at 98.18 million tons, an increase of 44 million tons compared with 97.74 million tons in July 27, a slight increase from last month 0.45%.
At the same time, in the case of market supply pressures continue to increase, the demand for iron ore market has continued to shrink. It is reported that, since 2008 by the financial crisis, China has increased infrastructure investment in the iron ore market in March 2009 re-warming, and all the way to skyrocket. However, with the slowdown of economic growth in China, the release of some of the major steel industry needs to slow demand for iron ore is also a significant slowdown.
Moreover, since the beginning of August, overhaul the range of steel production continues to increase, according to incomplete statistics, as of August 31, site statistics 163 steel mills in the country has 56 steel mills to determine the shutdown or overhaul. With the maintenance shutdown of some steel mills, steel mills on iron ore purchase a further contraction in demand, which makes the demand for this on the iron ore market downturn worse.
Visible, the iron ore market is still oversupply shipping business pressure pessimistic mentality still result in iron ore prices continue to accelerate to plumb.
The late prices will continue to fall
China's economic growth rate slowed down, steel prices continued to decline, steel mills profit situation has not improved, the losses appear before expanding trend level of profitability as of August 31, Ben survey of 163 samples of steel mills, of which 85.89% at a loss state, while earlier this month the data was 76.9%. And on the one hand, the demand for steel off-season, the other hand, China's crude steel production has not slowed down - in early August, China's average daily crude steel production reached 1.97 million tons, the market supply and demand imbalances in the short term is difficult to solve.
The role of the above factors, it is expected that the steel market in the short term will continue weakening trend, while steel prices continued Zoudie ore price will be difficult to form an effective support, or will continue to be a drag on the price of iron ore Zoudie. The same time, the decline in iron ore prices will decline in the cost of steel, which will further promote the steel prices edge lower, which in turn further drag on ore price.
At the same time, with steel production, the scope of overhaul and gradually expand, decline in demand for iron ore, iron ore port stocks are still in the rising demand no significant improvement in the situation, the channel, iron The ore market oversupply situation is unlikely to change, in this case, the iron ore prices will continue to fall.
However, with the arrival of the steel market, the traditional shopping season in September, Sept. downstream demand is expected to slow to improve. Gradually relaxed as the face of domestic policy, infrastructure investment to further accelerate in the late, plus on the latter part of Europe and the United States and other major economies is expected to introduce stimulus policies will improve the short-term demand for iron ore, a certain price of support, but by the impact of the sluggish growth of the real economy, its level of increase is limited.
Comprehensive view, the fundamentals and policy side of the iron ore market is still weak, short-term prices are still likely to continue downward, but the price declines may be limited.
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